Alexei Navalny died in the “Polar Walk” prison in Siberia on February 16, 2024. As leader of the opposition, he and his party struggled to bring democracy to Russia. President Vladimir Putin and his ruling party, United Russia, follow the Soviet playbook. “No more man, no more problem” was the old saying. They miscalculated.
Nevertheless, a week later, the opposition is in even more trouble. They have no leader. They have no legal party. They have no voice. Some have fled the country, while others have been arrested or intimidated.
The opposition will not give up. They have courage. They have each other. Call it faith: the belief democracy can beat the odds.
What does the future hold for the Russian opposition? what factors will shape its fate?
Suppression by the Kremlin
Navalny’s party, Russia of the Future was already outlawed as an extremist organization in June 2021, along with his anti-corruption foundation. Putin’s Kremlin has since further diluted the freedoms of speech, association, and assembly, making traditional forms of political organizing very difficult. Navalny’s party and movement may still have a network of regional offices and activists, who could organize protests, investigations, and campaigns. The organization does need work.
Internal Divisions and Leadership Vacuum
Navalny was a charismatic, unifying figure who had a wide appeal across Russian society. No single leader has emerged with the same level of authority or popular recognition.
There are tensions between those in exile, who can operate more freely, and those remaining in Russia, who face daily risks yet might have a better sense of the grassroots mood. A lot of the time they debate tactics – whether to focus on street protests (high risk), build clandestine networks, or to mobilize the Russian diaspora.
Apathy and Fear Within Russian Society
Russians are born wary of anti-government activities. State propaganda demonizes the opposition as foreign agents and traitors. The brutality of the crackdowns is designed to create fear and resignation. Russians are preoccupied with economic hardship, as the war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions have weakened the economy. For many, survival takes priority over politics.
Limited International Support
The “West” does a good job of calling out Putin’s authoritarian excesses, and then moving to the next agenda item. Putin relies on the reality that most nations either prioritize economic ties or acquiesce to political pragmatism over supporting Russian dissidents.
The war in Ukraine overshadows everything. In Washington D.C., politics has reached its limit of bipartisan resolve to assist Kiev. Pursuit of domestic political advantage has created a gridlock. Exhibit One: The stalled Congressional vote on Ukrainian military aid. Claire Berlinski writes, “Even if Mike Johnson relents and allows the House to vote, the [reputational] damage done to the United States isn’t recoverable.”
It is hard to know whether the Biden administration will publicly reach out to the Russian opposition. Safe to say, a future Trump administration would not, falling back upon American distrust of foreign adventures.
Also with an eye on history, Western Europe politicians may worry that a shift in Russian politics driven by war emotions could lead to more chaos than the status quo.
Leaders
Despite Kremlin pressure, the opposition has other leaders. They are not like Navalny. They are different. They have diverse ideas and goals. They have their own problems.
**Yulia Navalnaya** She is the widow of Navalny and a journalist in her own right, who has vowed to continue his work and legacy. She has emerged as a symbol of the opposition and a potential leader. She has shown strength and dignity. She has already raised the stakes by appealing for international support for the Russian opposition and imposition of sanctions on the Kremlin.
**Mikhail Kasyanov** He is a former prime minister of Russia who served under Putin from 2000 to 2004, but later became a vocal critic. He is the leader of the People’s Freedom Party (PARNAS). Barred from the last election, he has faced attacks from pro-Kremlin groups.
**Garry Kasparov** He is a renowned chess grandmaster and chairman of the Human Rights Foundation, based in New York City. He is the founder of the United Civil Front. He left Russia in 2013.
**Ksenia Sobchak** She is a TV personality who ran as a presidential candidate. She is the daughter of Anatoly Sobchak, a former mayor of St. Petersburg and a mentor of Putin. She claims to represent the young generation, but has come under suspicion about being a Kremlin-backed spoiler.
Here are some scenarios for the future of the Russian opposition.
Continued Resistance and Repression
The Kremlin will continue to suppress serious dissent and opposition, using legal, administrative, and unofficial means. The opposition will continue to resist, using activism, media, and advocacy. The conflict will remain asymmetric and protracted, with spikes of tension and confrontation.
Gradual Change and Dialogue
There is no shame in hoping for the best possible solution. Russia is not on the Rainbow Express, still the country functions and has history full of ideals.
The Kremlin might realize that its current course is unsustainable and counterproductive and will seek to ease some of the pressure and open some space for dialogue and compromise. The opposition will seize the opportunity and engage in constructive negotiations and cooperation with the regime, seeking gradual and incremental reforms and concessions.
John Lennon wrote, “I may be a dreamer, but I am not the only one.“
Sudden Breakthrough and Transition
The Kremlin might face a major crisis or shock that would undermine its legitimacy and stability, such as a military defeat, a leadership split, or a health emergency.
That said, at present, no signs exist of an existential threat to Putin, and less so to the bureaucratic-military hierarchy centred on Red Square.
In autocracies, none dare suggest a transition plan. No one in the Kremlin would survive long thinking like King Lear. Russian Presidents are in fine health, until they die.
The opposition could capitalize on the situation and mobilize a broad coalition of forces that demand and achieve a democratic transition of power.
Surfers call it, “waiting for the wave.”
Responsibility of Opposition
The Opposition must remain an Opposition, not degenerate into a guerrilla movement. The true Opposition upholds the law even when the government does not. The effective Opposition defines and offers policy and leadership change.
Recent studies show the public does keep an eye on the Opposition. If its leaders and program are credible, public support can shift abruptly and silently in even rigged elections. Its performance between elections makes a difference. We are developing an Opposition Index to measure the impact.
In March of this year, Putin (71) will run for his fifth term as President. If the last election is any guide, the result is less up to the imagination than the ingenuity of protests.
Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has encouraged Yulia Navalnaya to operate as she has done. That includes forming a transitional cabinet and platforms where “all the parties, all the forces are represented. “
Good advice from a neighbour. Strengthening the infrastructure of the Opposition may seem like dull office work, but is vital. The elements involved shadow the evolving formal state functions. A Government formed from the Opposition must be ready on Day One, to survive.
https://opposition/international/
Source: Conversation with Bing, 2/24/2024
(1) The body of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been handed over to his mother, aide says. https://www.msn.com/en-
(2) Yulia Navalnaya once avoided the limelight. Now she’s Russia’s newest opposition leader.https://ca.news.yahoo.
(3) Who Are Other Russian Dissidents Besides the Late Alexei Navalny?https://www.usnews.
(4) Ukraine war: Where are Russia’s opposition leaders now? – BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/
(5) Most of Russia’s opposition leaders are dead, in exile or in … – MSN.https://www.msn.com/en-za/
(6) What happens now that Russia’s opposition is either dead, in exile or imprisoned? https://www.msn.
Owen Lippert (PhD), Director, Opposition International