Change from one year or one election from the one before is often exaggerated. We perceive changes more readily than how things stay the same. Politics in particular tends to advance by increments, at least for most generations. Nigeria may test the stasis hypothesis in the upcoming July 2023 election. However, the changes may be on the margin as ethnic, religious, trbal, and language loyalties continue to influence political choices.

I admit to a strange hobby of comparing Nigerian and Bangladesh voting patterns. The two countries have roughly the same population of 165 million people and the geographical distribution is similar in terms of rural vs urban. Bangladeshi loyalties appear grounded in party networks more than socio-cultural characteristics, yet that may be just casual empiricism.

If there exists a subtle international dialectic in post-colonial democracies, what happens in Lagos may affect results in Dhaka. A fun theory at least.